Featured in The Wall Street Journal

July 13, 2023
, , , , Articles, Awards, News

Five Star Professionals identified award candidates based on industry data and nominations received from industry firms and individuals in Greater Texas (self-nominations are not accepted). Only candidates who satisfied 10 objective eligibility and evaluation criteria have been named Five Star Wealth Managers. The select list of Greater Texas Five Star Wealth Managers was announced in the August 2023 issue of Texas Monthly.

Winners featured here represent some of Greater Texas’s most dedicated wealth managers, each committed to pursuing professional excellence and providing exceptional service to their clients.

Read the full article here.

Maverick Wealth Management Makes News in Fortune Magazine

July 13, 2023
, , , Articles, Awards, News

Five Star Professionals employed a rigorous research process to identify the Five Star award winners in cities from across the United States. Award-winning professionals were carefully selected from among thousands of wealth managers for their knowledge, service and experience.

Winners featured here represent some of the country’s most dedicated wealth managers and investment professionals, each committed to pursuing professional excellence and providing exceptional service to their clients.

Read the full article here.

What to be on the lookout for in 2019

January 16, 2019
, , Articles

As we enter the last year of this decade we find ourselves in a familiar place to where we started the decade. In 2010 we were just recovering from the worst economic recession in US history that didn’t lead to a depression. The US recession of 2008 was so vast that it lead to a global recession. Q4 has historically been a strong quarter for the markets and the US economy in general.

However, similar to the end of 2008 (starting Sept 15, 2008) when we saw a drop of 23.12% in the DJIA including 4 of the biggest top 10 drops in a single day in history, Q4 of 2018 saw a decline of 12.3% in the DJIA. For the year (2018) the DJIA finished -3.75%, the S&P500 finished -4.56 and the NASDAQ finished -4.36%. 2018 also saw 7 of the 13 biggest loss days in the history of the DJIA, including each of the top 4. In fact, January 3, 2019 also ranked in the top 13 biggest loss days in US history (www.wikipedia.org). Interestingly, 2018 also saw 6 of the top 10 biggest growth days in DJIA history. It comes as no surprise based on the massive swings 2018 brought us that volatility jumped dramatically in 2018 off its historical lows. We continue to expect heightened volatility in 2019.

First, we are not saying this means we are entering, or have entered, the “next 2008.” We, on the contrary, are not saying this was “just a dip.” What we are saying is that it is “to be determined.” At Maverick Wealth Management we have been educating clients for the previous 18 months that it appeared to us that the bull market was on its proverbial last leg, and have forecasted a recession by the end of 2020. A premise we still believe we were right about, and is now appears to be the majority belief on Wall Street. However, it does not mean that 2019 will lead to a bear market or a recession (nor does it mean a recession will happen by the end of 2020).
It is our opinion that Q1 of 2019 could tell the majority of the story for 2019. Lets take a look at what major events will transpire before the end of March 2019:

  • Jan 3, 2019 Democrats take control of the House and have promised radical progressive policies and impeachment filings.
  • Jan 22, 2019 The World Economic Forum and Annual Meeting
  • Jan 29, 2019 The Federal Reserve Q1 Meeting
  • President and Trump and China have said they will meet sometime in January in regards to trade negotiations.
  • March 29 The United Kingdom (UK) officially leaves the European Union (EU)

The World Economic Forum and Annual meeting is expected to have an attendance of over 100 different countries leaders, and in excess of 1,000 different executives from major global companies. This could be a very early tell on what some of the market makers and world leaders are preparing for. This could serve as an early self-fulfilling prophecy for 2019.
The Federal Reserve, often referred to “The Fed,” surprised many analysts in Q4 of 2018 by raising rates to 2.5%. The Fed, during their December meeting, also implied that they expected to continue raising rates in 2019. If the markets continue to struggle and the government is still partially closed due to the President and Congress not reaching a funding agreement then we expect the Fed will not raise rates. This is a stark contrast to what many were predicting for 2019 just a few months ago. Most experts we researched predicted that the Fed would raise rates 3-4 times in 2019. Today, many of those same experts are lowering their expectations to less than twice for 2019. Despite the lowering of expectations, the fed not raising rates could potentially be a positive market move to help reduce added pressure of higher rates. Of course it could also produce a negative reaction with the perception that The Fed believes the economy is in need of help.

President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, are expected to reach a trade deal. We believe the details are mostly already agreed to with the US agreeing to export LNG (liquified natural gas) to China, while agreeing to import agricultural products from China. The big wild card in our minds is intellectual property rights agreements. China has historically not honored any US Intellectual Property rights, but President Trump has stated this is a must have in a trade deal with China. Will the two be able to reach an agreement? A US and China trade deal could work well for the markets in 2019. On the contrary, the lack of one could be harmful to global markets as the US and China are two of the largest economies in the world, if not the top two (as new statistics are not out yet).
How will the world react to the UK officially being on its own and separate from the EU? Most believe the market pricing has already been “priced in.” However, there are significant uncertainties surrounding this move that could influence markets globally.

With the news of job reports growing in Dec of 2018 at a higher than expected level coupled with a split congress (historically this helps the market as people can more easily measure what legislation they expect will pass) and decent fundamentals we believe the US equities market could see some rally in 2019. It is our opinion that two of the most important things to watch for in Q1 is first, can President Trump work with Congress to fund the government and, secondly, can President Trump work a deal with China that gets some economic growth moving again.
To touch on the bond market, we continue to have low expectations for bond markets as raising rates typically have negative impacts on bonds. Furthermore, the dollar in our view appears to have peaked, and we are expected it to potentially fall back in 2019.

To conclude it remains our belief that we are towards the end of this (bull) market cycle. This does not mean that we will enter a recession or bear market in 2019, but it does suggest the odds are higher this year than they were last year. As the addressed geopolitical and macroeconomic events mentioned above unfold over the next several weeks and months, their estimated impacts will become clearer. We believe now more than ever that proactive asset management is the key. Stay informed. Stay connected. Stay engaged. Meeting with your advisor will help you to be proactive rather than reactive in these uncertain times.

Download the article here.

Disclosure(s): The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and re not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All prefromance referenced is historical and is no guarentee of furture results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The economic forcasts set forth in this material may not devlevop as predicted and there can be no guarentee that strategies promoted will be successful. Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through 360 Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor. Maverick Wealth Management and 360 Wealth Management are separate entities from LPL Financial.

Tax Reform in 2018

February 5, 2018
, News, Taxes, World Economy

January 25, 2017

Dear Valued Investor:

I hope that you have enjoyed spending time with loved ones during this holiday season. This time of year often presents an opportunity for some additional rest and relaxation, but there is always the possibility for activity in the markets—or as was the case last week, the government. Friday, December 22, 2017, President Trump signed the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act into law. Although the depth of detail of this new law may be intimidating, on balance, its passage may provide firmer footing for investors as we begin a new year.

The $1.5 trillion tax cut is a complex, 1,000-page law intended to spur economic activity through a reduction in both individual and corporate tax rates, and simplify the tax code by eliminating or trimming a variety of deductions and exemptions. At a high-level overview:

  • The Joint Committee on Taxation suggests the estimated total cost over 10 years will be just over $1 trillion, with the offset of $500 billion in added revenue from an estimated economic growth impact of +0.7% per year over the next 10 years.
  • The estimated net tax cuts for individuals total approximately $1.15 trillion, or about 77% of the package, a greater focus on individual tax cuts than the original House bill.
  • The estimated net tax cuts for U.S. corporations total around $330 billion, or 23% of the overall package.

The new tax law has important implications for major corporations, small businesses, and individual taxpayers, and is designed to shift the trajectory for economic growth, the federal budget, monetary policy, and perhaps most critically for investors—corporate profits.

There are legitimate concerns that the new law could increase the potential for higher inflation and weigh on the deficit. Yet U.S. consumers may be poised to reap approximately $100 billion in 2018 and $200 billion in 2019 thanks to the individual tax cuts. Meanwhile, U.S. corporations can potentially boost investment from a combination of lower taxes, repatriated profits, and immediate expensing, further supporting economic growth.  It appears initially that Telecom and industrials are poised for the greatest potential benefit, although this is not a recommendation for either assets class.

Perhaps the biggest immediate takeaway for investors is that the accelerated timeline to pass the law has decreased uncertainty. As a result, individuals and businesses have the opportunity to begin planning around the changes and pulling forward the new law’s impact.

With the new tax law in play, Maverick Wealth Management is upgrading its projections for 2018 U.S. economic growth to 2.75% from its original forecast of 2.5%, raising estimates for corporate profits, and consequently increasing its projection for the S&P 500 Index’s price target to a range of 2825 by year-end.* This upgraded S&P 500 target increases Maverick Wealth Management’s broad return expectations for 2018 at approximately 8-10% including dividends, while the we still maintains a cautious bond market view, due to the greater risk of rising interest rates.

We are cautious that any number of events could spur a bear market sooner than later. In fact, after the tax bill passed Morgan Stanley (who posted Wall Street’s most bullish outlook in Jan 2017 with a S&P 2700 target) released expectations for a recession by 2020 (morganstanlyFA.com) calling it “almost inevitable,” and still giving 2018 a 25% chance to enter a bear market. Thus, we continue to maintain that active management and meeting regularly with your advisor can help stay in front of a potentially looming bear market.

The new tax law should help provide fiscal support for the economy as monetary support is withdrawn. And although it helps decrease the chance of a recession in 2018 and even in 2019, market volatility may increase significantly from the extraordinarily low levels that persisted since 2015. The US Bonds market could potentially see its hardest year in a decades, and we continue to favor international as a more stable value appears present than domestic. Nevertheless, for markets and the economy, the new law appears to provide a firmer launching point as we enter the New Year.

Lastly, enclosed you will find LPL administered bullet points regarding the tax reform. We wish you a healthy and happy 2018. And as always, we encourage you to contact us with any questions.

Sincerely,

Your Friends at Maverick Wealth Management

Important Information

*Based on a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 19–20. Forecasts are from our Outlook 2018: Return of the Business Cycle publication.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax or legal advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific situation with a qualified tax or legal advisor.

Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted.

The PE ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher PE ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE ratio.

The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Investing in stock includes numerous specific risks including: the fluctuation of dividend, loss of principal and potential illiquidity of the investment in a falling market.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond and bond mutual fund values and yields will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

 

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Securities offered through LPL Financial LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Tracking #1-681790 (Exp. 12/18)

 

Trump Wins

November 29, 2016
News, Posts

Donald J Trump has completed his landmark quest and will become the nation’s 45th president after a contentious and divisive campaign. In addition, the Republican Party has retained control of both houses of Congress. This outcome marks a significant reversal from just a few weeks ago when a Hillary Clinton presidency was highly probably and even a Democratic Party sweep of Congress was being considered.

While this outcome is certainly a shock to many, it is important to remember that the result isn’t a surprise to the plurality of American voters that spoke their collective will at the ballot boxes. The strength of a democracy is not in whether we like the outcome, but rather in how we accept the result as the voice and will of our republic.

Despite many things being promised on the campaign trail, all newly elected Presidents enter with a constrained ability to enact their agenda unilaterally. As a result, immediate and sweeping political changes are a process, which gives markets and the American public time to digest and react. Although often derided by partisans, the inability of a President to swiftly change policies is a strength of our political system, not a weakness of it.

Moreover, the current market volatility is not because Trump was elected President, as markets do not have political affiliations. Rather, it reflects the market’s adjustment to a surprise presidential winner and the market’s tentativeness regarding the vast uncertainty over which of President-elect Trump’s stated policies he will be able to enact. Which Matt and Jeremy had articulated in meetings over the months leading into last night’s election. The first major step towards clarity will come with Trump’s choices for key administration officials; his selections will give a better sense of the priorities for the Trump administration. This should provide some path to further understanding and potentially calm the markets.

For the first time in 10 years, the Republican Party has control of the Presidency and both houses of congress. The Democratic Party did control all three from 2008-2010, however, this is the first time

since the first two years of President George W Bush’s second term that the Republican party has control. As in all things, this may solve some problems, and perhaps exacerbate others. For example, potentially divisive upcoming issue, such as the necessary expansion of the debt ceiling and reforms to corporate tax code, could be easier to navigate. There is a common perception that the markets live a divided government. While it is not necessarily true at every point in history, it is the most common result of a “one-sided government.”

Most importantly, however, over time we have witnessed corporations and financial markets adapting smoothly to new political environments. It’s just a matter of time. The uncertainty surrounding the Trump presidency could be greater than a typical transition; therefore, the markets may take additional time to process any changes. However, the uncertainty itself is not unusual.

Separating political views and emotions from investment decisions is difficult. Whether this election result was your favored outcome or not, what we have learned over the years is that although Presidents can set an overall tone for the markets, over the long term, it is the underlying fundamental of the economy and the strength of corporate profits that matter more. Overall, as wealth managers, we continue to be hesitant by the underlying fundamentals in the economy being conflicting. Coupling that with the related resilience of the stock market. Recently, encouraging economic data, including a record 73 consecutive months of private sector jobs growth, higher consumer confidence, and an increase in manufacturing activity, al suggest an economic recession in the next year is unlikely (U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics 11/7/16). Although the S&P500 is up 2% year to date (as of market close 11/4/16), it is basically flat over the past three months and only up ½% over roughly the last 18 months (July 10, 2015 it was 2076; Nov 4, 2016 it was 2085.

The ability to shift through economic and market data when conflicted is where we pride ourselves at Maverick Wealth Management. For example, the lowest workforce participation rate in 38 years is where we find the “state of the economy,” however, the unemployment rate recently hit an 8 year low. These two statistics dramatically contradict themselves, thus allowing many people to misunderstand economic data. The Federal Reserve Bank remains ready to react. However, we must acknowledge they have almost no room to reduce rates if need be. Currently, we are sitting at the 89th month into this bull market, the 3rd longest in U.S. history (www.wallstreetjournal.com) and quickly closing in on the 2nd longest bull market. Most professionals, while they may disagree on when things turn, do agree that we are towards the tail-end of this current bull market.

As this historic cycle comes to a close, we suggest casting a “vote for your advisor.” Be present with your advisor (show up for meetings quarterly), be proactive with your asset management (don’t only “buy and hold”) and be open to perspective. While uncertainty will certainly be prevalent over the short-term, our political and economic systems are resilient and can, after a period of adjustment, adapt to new realities. As investors, we all need to try to put this election into perspective, as our investment horizons extend far beyond yesterday’s votes or any political cycle.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly

 

Brexit

August 8, 2016
Articles, Community, News, Posts, World Economy

In the wake of the last month’s events, we feel the need to address the global situation(s), as well as, give our outlook moving forward. As many of you know, for weeks now we have been calling for recessionary pressures to fuel heightened volatility and market retractions in equities. As of the date of this writing (July 18, 2016) we are only a few weeks into the United Kingdom’s (UK) vote to leave the European Union (EU), commonly referred to as Brexit. Friday, on the brink of Brexit, global markets retracted heavily. Our goal here is to give our opinion on what we believe will happen moving forward as a result of Brexit.

The question we have encountered the most is “will the market crash?” Well, that is a relative question and answer. So the best we can say is, it depends. It depends on what your definition of a crash is, it depends on what happens next, it depends on how long you want to look at the market, and it depends on what market you are referring to.

Before the Brexit, we believed we were possibly on the brink of a multi-year market recession, in US equities. We have believed for some time now that the US has been artificially held up with via quantitative easing (QE) and historically low interest rates. Our economy has yet to top 3% GDP growth in the past 10 years (www.bls.gov), the first time ever in US history since being measured. We also believed the US has been heading into an earnings recession with higher real inflation than quoted by the Fed. This could possibly lead to stagflation. Further, we believed that this election period has been uglier and more unpredictable than any in recent history, and that the election could fuel uncertainty and fear. Uncertainly and fear, as you can imagine, are rarely good for the markets.

Lastly, we believed, and still believe, that markets are cyclical and that we are in the back-end of this bull market. Lastly, we constantly subscribe to a theory called reversion to the mean. Wikipedia defines this theory as a theory suggesting that prices and returns eventually move back toward the mean, or average. This mean or average can be the historical average of the price or return, or another relevant average such as the growth in the economy or the average return of an industry. This concept makes sense to most but we typically do not see it applied in their investment allocations. We have been in a bull market for 85 months now. Bull markets over the last 70 years have averaged 44 months in length (www.vanguard.com). Thus, we are flirting with double the average tenure in this current bull market.

Adding all of these factors, even if we are wrong and no recession happens, we don’t see a lot of upside in US equity markets. We also believe that the Euro currency could continue to fall versus the dollar due to the amount of spending within the European Union and the excess printing of Euro. Knowing that Greece was going to most likely need another bailout in a few weeks, we foresaw a falling Euro. As a result, we also see commodities doing very well over the next few years.

All of these outlooks were before the Brexit. As you can most likely deduct, we now feel more convicted that a bearish US equities market is on the horizon. We actually believe there is some strong international growth available, however, we must remind people that a sinking tide lowers all ships. In 2008, in our opinion, we should have learned how interconnected the global markets are now. This leads us to be very careful when looking at any equities right now.

The concerns surrounding the EU and the UK are not over. We could very likely see Scotland either leave the UK and go back to the EU, block the UKs Brexit vote (or attempt to), or even leave the UK and not join the EU. We could also see other countries within the EU decide to “jump ship” from the EU. As mentioned earlier, Greece is potentially going to have to have another infusion of capital to pay their debt coming due. The carryover of psychological effects surrounding the Brexit and subsequent EU Bond effects could also carry into U.S. investments as uncertainty could continue to rise. The ripple effect for global investments may be felt for decades.

Investment wise, we are not anticipating another 2008 hard and fast slide. Instead, we believe the next few years could look similar to the 2000-2002 bear market. Those years saw negative S&P500 returns of 10.14%, 13.04% and 23.37% respectfully (www.bloomberg.com). If we are right and the markets are in store for multi-year contractions, then we don’t want you effected negatively. There are ways to preserve assets and possibly grow assets in markets like these. There are too many investment options to discuss here, and several suitability factors to consider, but just know you have options and we want to visit with you regarding them.

The opinions voices in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested directly. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.

Five Star Professional Awards the 2016 Five Star Wealth Manager Award to Jeremy Walker of Maverick Wealth Management

June 29, 2016
Articles, Awards, News

Exclusive recognition of Dallas/Forth Worth-area wealth managers.

Left to right: Kelly Montgomery, Client Services Director; Four-year winner Matt Hubbell, Wealth Manager; Four-year winner Jeremy J. Walker, CRPC®, AWMA®, Wealth Manager, President, Managing Member

Thank you for the faith and trust you enlist in us daily. We take great pride in protecting, growing and managing your assets, but we most value our relationships with each and every one of you.

BURLESON, TX (PRWEB) JUNE 27, 2016

Five Star Professional is pleased to announce Jeremy Walker, Maverick Wealth Management, has been chosen as one of Dallas/Fort Worth’s Five Star Wealth Managers for 2016.

Five Star Professional partnered with Texas Monthly to recognize a select group of Dallas/Fort Worth-area wealth managers who provide quality services to their clients. Jeremy Walker is featured, along with other award winners, in a special section of the August issue.

“Once my injuries became too plentiful to remain competitive, it became clear I was not going to play professional sports. I then went to college to do just this. Numbers and finance always came easy to me, and I loved the challenges of problem-solving. I was able to obtain my first degree (BBA) in financial planning and my second degree in insurance to help with comprehensive financial planning,” says Jeremy Walker of Maverick Wealth Management.

The Five Star Wealth Manager award program is the largest and most widely published wealth manager award program in the financial services industry. The award is based on a rigorous, multifaceted research methodology, which incorporates input from peers and firm leaders along with client retention rates, industry experience and a thorough regulatory history review.

“Thank you for the faith and trust you enlist in us daily. We take great pride in protecting, growing and managing your assets, but we most value our relationships with each and every one of you,” says Jeremy.

“Based on our evaluation, the wealth managers we recognize are committed to pursuing professional excellence and have a deep knowledge of their industry. They strive to provide exemplary care to the people they serve,” stated Dan Zdon, CEO, Five Star Professional.

The Five Star Wealth Manager award, administered by Crescendo Business Services, LLC (dba Five Star Professional), is based on 10 objective criteria: 1. Credentialed as a registered investment adviser or a registered investment adviser representative; 2. Active as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of 5 years; 3. Favorable regulatory and complaint history review (unfavorable feedback may have been discovered through a check of complaints registered with a regulatory authority or complaints registered through Five Star Professional’s consumer complaint process*); 4. Fulfilled their firm review based on internal standards; 5. Accepting new clients; 6. One-year client retention rate; 7. Five-year client retention rate; 8. Non-institutional discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9. Number of client households served; 10. Education and professional designations.

Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or awarded. Once awarded, wealth managers may purchase additional profile ad space or promotional products. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided and is not indicative of the winner’s future performance. 2,471 Dallas/Fort Worth wealth managers were considered for the award; 678 (28 percent of candidates) were named 2016 Five Star Wealth Managers.

*To qualify as having a favorable regulatory and complaint history, the person cannot have: 1. been subject to a regulatory action that resulted in a suspended or revoked license, or payment of a fine, 2. had more than three customer complaints filed against them (settled or pending) with any regulatory authority or Five Star Professional’s consumer complaint process, 3. individually contributed to a financial settlement of a customer complaint filed with a regulatory authority, 4. filed for bankruptcy, or 5. been convicted of a felony.

For research methodology information visit http://www.fivestarprofessional.com.

Link to original publication here.

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Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC, (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC, (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. Maverick Wealth Management is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS.

This site is published for residents of the United States only. Registered Representatives of Kestra Investment Services, LLC and Investment Advisor Representatives of Kestra Advisory Services, LLC, may only conduct business with residents of the states and jurisdictions in which they are properly registered. Therefore, a response to a request for information may be delayed. Not all of the products and services referenced on this site are available in every state and through every representative or advisor listed. Neither Kestra IS or Kestra AS provides legal or tax advice. For additional information, please contact our Compliance department at 737-443-2582. Form CRS